
MANAGING AGENT’S REPORT
continued
8 Syndicate 2791 Annual Report and Accounts 2024
FINANCIAL REPORT
Investment Return
The investment return for 2024 was +6.4%, +£49.0m (2023: +5.1%, +£28.9m). Net of investment expenses, including
fund incentive fees, the return was +5.9%, +£45.4m (2023: +4.9%, +£27.7m).
In line with our underwriting, the vast majority (90%) of syndicate investment assets are held in US Dollars. And within
this, the vast majority of the US Dollars have been invested in short duration US Treasury securities.
As mentioned in the investment narrative last year, the position going into 2024 was to keep the portfolio short, at
the highest yielding part of the curve given its inverted nature, until there is more certainty as to how the Fed will
act. No certainty came and so the portfolio remained short. The market had initially priced in several rate cuts
throughout the year, but it was not until September that the first of three 25bps cuts materialised. The yield curve
did return to normal but there has not been enough of a steepening to warrant extending the duration of the portfolio
given the uncertainty as to how the future will pan out. The other decision around the debt portfolio required less of
a discussion in terms of whether to add credit or not. With US corporate spreads tightening to levels not seen for
over 25 years the reward premium for taking on the additional risk was even less attractive than before and not one
that the Investment Committee was willing to take.
Outside of credit markets, the investment committee were able to identify more attractive ways of adding risk to the
portfolio throughout the year. The ability to do so was driven by the strong underwriting profits being forecast on the
2022 and 2023 years of account, increasing confidence that additional volatility in the portfolio was more easily
tolerated, along with strong cash inflows due to the favourable underwriting conditions on 2024 year of account.
In April, further funds were transferred into the global long/short equity only fund, six months after our initial
investment in October 2023. The fund continued as it had begun with it outperforming expectations with a net return
for the year of +35.6%. The high conviction long positions in the energy infrastructure sector performing especially
well as large-capitalised technology stocks looked to secure their future energy supply. This fund made up 4.7% of
the total portfolio by year end.
The Investment Committee took the decision to invest no further funds into the long-end of the US Treasury curve
given the level of uncertainty around future inflation levels, and the volatility in global markets and ongoing
geopolitical tensions. This decision was vindicated by the yield on the 20-year treasury swaying between 4% and 5%
throughout the year. The holdings, 2.3% of the portfolio at year end, ended the year with a -8.7% return but the
Investment Committee continue to believe that the US may see an underperformance in terms of growth which could
impact inflationary expectations, thus resulting in the yield at the long end falling.
As a direct result of some of these concerns, the Investment Committee took the decision to continue the monthly
investment into gold, via the ETFs, on the basis that gold is considered a safe-haven asset when markets are spooked.
The holdings in gold performed very well over 2024 with a +26.5% return. The price of gold rose from around
$2,080/oz at the end of 2023 to $2,610/oz at the end of 2024, it’s best performance in 14 years. Central banks
continued to invest in gold, possibly as a diversifier from having too much reliance on US Treasuries, and almost
certainly at least partially because of the safe haven characteristic gold offers that few other assets can replicate.
The existing holding in a multi asset hedge fund that invests in, among other areas, early-stage mining companies has
not yet delivered. The performance of the S&P 500 through 2024 would have attracted the markets attention but
possibly in 2025 we may see a rotation out of the mega cap tech stocks and into the undervalued commodity sector,
which the fund is very well positioned for.
It is the view of the Investment Committee that there could be a gentle move away from the overvalued US equity
market and this has led to investment into two new funds in the latter part of 2024. One of the funds is a long only
Japanese equity fund (1.6% of the portfolio). The culture within Japan is shifting in terms of asset heavy corporations
unlocking shareholder value and the experienced external portfolio managers look to take selective positions in order
to help this process along through activist intervention. The other fund is a UK Investment Trust (1.5% of the portfolio)
that invests in the out of favour UK small cap sector. There is a belief the fracturing European Union along with a
stable UK Government, after years of turmoil, will attract the attention of the market once again. However, we are
the first to admit that this may be a test of patience to hold the position long enough to see the gains come through,
but we are confident there is value to be had. As a result of the longer-term strategic nature of these holdings, neither
were able to contribute towards the return in 2024 but we are optimistic that returns will materialise through 2025
and beyond.